svenska politik Archives • SwedeInternational

Books, Nato, and opinion polls

**These kinds of images are not going away**
image: Reuters.com https://tinyurl.com/3h6mjk8s

It’s not often a Swedish administrative law makes international, political news. But when a Stockholm court decided that the police did not have a legal leg to stand on when they denied permission to burn the Koran at two different demonstrations, it did not go unnoticed.

Burning books part II

An administrative court is where a conflict between a state agency and a private person (or business) is decided. In this case, both a private person and an association calling itself “Apallarkerna,” appealed the police’s decision to not allow either of them to burn a Koran in public. The private person wanted to burn a Koran in front of the Iraqi embassy to protest Islam in general. The association thought (perhaps not incorrectly) that burning a Koran in front of Türkiye’s embassy, à la Paludan, was a good way of preventing Sweden from joining Nato.

The police denied both demonstration applications on the grounds that their actions would threaten national security (see this post). However, the court found that according to the way the law is written, national security is not a legal reason for denying permission to hold such a demonstration.

Sweden’s Nato application

This will not do anything to further endear Sweden to Türkiye. In a recent meeting at Nato headquarters in Brussels, Türkiye’s foreign minister even drew a parallel between the court’s decision and Nazi Germany. “The Nazis started by burning books, then they attacked religious gathering places, and then they gathered people in camps and burned them to achieve their ultimate goals. That’s the way these things start” he is reported to have said.

Should it be illegal?

If (or more likely, when) a burning next takes place, Türkiye may not be the only who is seriously upset. A recent DN/Ipsos poll found that 51% of Swedes think that it ought to be illegal to burn holy books like the Koran or the Bible.

In an interview with SvD, former prime minister Carl Bildt said that he was not sure if burning a book was actually a protected right, but that it was complicated. “It is quite obvious that it is not freedom of expression to burn down a mosque. But burning a book, is it freedom of expression? Leave it to the lawyers to draw boundaries, but it is reasonable to think that somewhere there is a limit to what you can burn as part of freedom of expression.”

Others are not so sure it is time to change Sweden’s laws. “Only a few months ago we were proud that we allowed book burning – it was proof of our freedom of expression” Antje Jackelén, Swedish archbishop emeritus, commented. “Then along comes Erdogan, and our Nato negotiations break down, and suddenly we think completely differently. It’s a little meager.”

In the same poll, support for a ban on publishing images that denigrate religious symbols, or a ban on ridiculing religious scriptures in a text, was just under 30%. It is unknown what support there is for a ban on other actions, like putting a glass of wine down on a religious book or otherwise not showing respect. Those actions may or may not go unnoticed in the future.

When a chat is complicated

Computers studying – so you don’t have to.
*source: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2022/12/openai-chatgpt-chatbot-messages/672411/*

Ta-da! A five hundred word essay on the theme of the hero in contemporary literature. Or how about the history of the Parthenon? Or a letter to a friend one hasn’t seen in a long time? Ten seconds later and you have an advanced piece of writing, thanks to OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

It’s scary. And so much fun! Type in “Write a blog post on ChatGPT in Sweden” and you’ll get a fine answer, like “ChatGPT, a chatbot developed by OpenAI, has been gaining popularity in Sweden as a useful tool for business and organizations. It uses a variant of the GPT (Generative Pre-training Transformer) language model to generate human-like responses to text input in a conversation context.”

Boring, but accurate. After having read a dozen or more ChatGPT texts, it’s easy to get tired of the dry and lifeless language it uses. For facts and details, ChatGPT can also be straight-out incorrect. But it’s early days.

We speak Flashback

It’s also in English, so far. ChatGPT has been trained on the internet (lots of Wikipedia), archived books, and even real human conversations it’s been party to. All in English. A Swedish chatbot, GPT-SW3, is of course in the works. However, as Per Gudmundson (SvD) wrote the other day, its development is hindered by the fact that the National Library of Sweden (Kungliga biblioteket) won’t yet allow chat developers access to its vast digital content. Instead, the developers have had to turn to, among other things, posts on Flashback and Swedish Reddit for examples of human speech and interaction. With content like that, it’s going to be great.

The issue is sensitive. Sweden’s research institute, RISE, says on its website that GPT-SW3 is absolutely not training on Flashback. So who knows? The royal library took issue with Gudmundson as well. In SvD’s online edition the next day, the library protested that it is indeed helping Sweden develop its AI capabilities – by allowing its texts to be read and understood by computer programs. Chat development, though, gets a hard no. The library is not able to foresee the consequences of allowing its database to be used for that purpose, wrote the chief librarian.

For chat-interaction development, there are apparently two projects that are crucial: Natural Language Understanding (NLU) and Processing (NLP). These two projects are meant to be able to make it possible to sort through, tag, and find relevant information in huge amounts of Swedish. Then, in the next step, they’ll be able to respond with relevant answers and information, even for those who pose poor questions, or grammatically imperfect ones.

“Thank God I’m retiring.”

Until GPT-SW3 is well-sourced and developed, it’s in English where the rubber meets the road. A teacher’s “Thank God I’m retiring soon” is echoed everywhere. Articles entitled “The End of High School English” and the like have popped up like pimples on a teenager. In the New York Times Opinion, columnist Frank Bruni wonders if his career is over. Somewhat alarmingly, he doesn’t actually answer that question. Instead, he takes it to a more philosophical level, namely – If we are what we do, and we outsource what we do, what is left is aimlessness, purposelessness, even pointlessness. This is surely not OpenAI’s intention, but we all know where intentions can lead.

OpenAI was cofounded by Elon Musk and Sam Altman, among a few others. If you’re not a Musk fan, you might find purpose in not using ChatGPT, but it could be pointless. Ta-da!

A Paradigm shift

**Victory walk by party leaders Johan, Jimmie, Ulf and Ebba.**
foto: Jessica Gow/TT. https://tinyurl.com/ysdujr7w Tidningen Syre

A new Swedish government was announced Friday. The Moderate, Christian Democrat and Liberal parties will all steer the ship of state. Having said that, the presence of the Sweden Democrats was felt immediately. As expected, they will not be sitting in the government, but after an initial introduction of general policy directions by Prime Minister-in-waiting Ulf Kristersson, the microphone went first to the Sweden Democrats’ party leader, Jimmie Åkesson.

What followed was a long list of changes in migration, crime and punishment policy that SD, speaking together with the other three party leaders, expects to see to fruition. While not new, the different suggestions have probably never been heard strung together like that before. Åkesson called it a “paradigm shift,” and many would agree.

Safety and security first

The banner heading was “increased safety and security.” To that aim, Åkesson’s list included doubled sentences for crimes committed by gang members (like California’s STEP act), the end of all “crime rebates” (like the one which reduces the punishment of several crimes to only the sentence of the biggest crime), the institution of zones in which the police can body search someone (like in Denmark) on only a faint suspicion, some form of anonymous witnessing (also like in Denmark), and instituting a crown witness program (reduced sentences in exchange for information – like in Norway and the Netherlands). Sweden might also begin to out-source jails to other countries. For non-citizens, deportation might be on the table for a larger number of crimes.

The minimum

Regarding asylum rights, Åkesson was careful to state that the right to seek asylum would not be abridged. The rights and privileges granted to asylum seekers, however, were not going to exceed what European Union regulations stipulate. This meant, explained Åkesson, that the rules regarding asylum seekers and their ability to bring over family members would be stricter. Stronger identity documentation would also be demanded, and an investigation into if and how asylum seekers could be asked to fund part of their asylum costs (like they do in Denmark) is to be set in motion.

In addition, quota refugees (refugees who are relocated to third countries under the auspices of the UN) will be reduced from over 6000 to under 1000 – over 80%. Further, initial residency permits will be time-limited, not permanent, which has mostly been the case previously. Åkesson also talked about providing incentives for certain people to leave the country, especially, he said, those who haven’t integrated well. Finally, Swedish citizenship will be more difficult to obtain, requiring more time in the country, no criminal record and perhaps even “good behavior,” language proficiency and/or knowledge about Sweden – requirements that have not been asked for before.

31 aug. – bankrolling the army

Ever wonder where your taxes go? Sweden’s expenses run to about 990 billion kronor a year (this, and following numbers, are courtesy of the Finance Department at regeringen.se). The largest expense, 111 billion, goes out to the municipalities who use it for their expenses. Economic help for families and children, people who are sick and people with disabilities together comes to about 194 billion kronor. As far as expense posts go, defense comes in 8th at about 54 billion kronor, just after (and less than) Communications and telecommunications. It’s sobering at this moment to consider the state of Sweden’s train infrastructure, or the security of our digital networks, the main components of Communications, and then think that Sweden’s armed forces receive less.

The additional 20 billion kronor going to the Department for Defence, that the government and its support parties have agreed upon, is a welcome shot in the arm. But it is not exactly clear where the money is going to come from. The hot rumour is a new bank tax, something the Left Party has been pushing for quite a while – they wanted the revenue to go to health care not the military, but apparently “whatever”. Left Party economic spokesperson Ulla Andersson was openly amused that “their” tax was now going to become reality thanks to the traditionally tax-unfriendly Center and Liberal parties.

The Moderate party spokesperson, Elisabeth Svantesson, was more critical, meaning that higher taxes, on banks or otherwise, shouldn’t be the very first measure taken when expenses rise. Instead, she says, the Green Party’s “free year” and/or the Social Democrat’s “family week” could be cut instead. The Christian Democrats, on the other hand, are reserving judgement. They have previously even suggested a bank tax, but one that is based on taxing banks’ risk-taking products and ventures and not just taxing the entire business ().

What they mean by that and how that would actually work is anyone’s guess. What is certain, although no one in the government is saying it, is that however the tax is formed, banks will pass on the expense to their customers (. Banks made approximately 100 billion kronor last year (compare to budget numbers in first paragraph) which makes them an easy target for ire and jealousy. Although one could hope for a more cool-headed approach from our elected representatives, a bank tax sells well to many people. The check, though, will likely eventually land in fewer bank hires, reduced hours, and fewer free bank services, trends that are already in the making.

Taxes are all about paying, whether or not the bank does it first or whether we all do it in a lump sum every May. If it’s going to contribute to making Sweden’s defense more reliable than say, the trains running on time, it could be worth it.

Mon. 12/8 – how low can you go?

Would you pay to keep money in a bank? Would you contribute to your bank’s “stability” by paying them to hold your hard-earned kronor? So far, banks have passed on passing on negative interest rates to customers’ regular savings accounts, but rumours have begun to circulate that having to pay a bank to hold on to your savings isn’t as foreign a concept as once thought.

The article on Bloomberg’s website spells it out clearly “Depositors are next as Nordic Banks Buckle Under Negative Rates“. The question is, do the banks dare to make people pay to have an account? Who will be the first to try it, and risk the ire of their customers? Will customers actually accept it?

The Swedish central bank’s Stefan Ingves has stubbornly held on to his idea of negative interest rates, even when even his inner circle is divided on the issue. Previously, it was held that it was good for Sweden’s exports, as the weak krona (due, in many ways, to the negative interest rate) makes Swedish products seem inexpensive. But even business owners have begun to complain, finding that their product is almost working under false pretences, and that it is harder to price against the market. At first, it seemed great, but now, after some time has passed, not so much.

Banks have made money with the negative rates by relying on asset management and other fee-generating products, Bloomberg reports. But that stream might not now be strong enough. The director of the Danish Bankers’ Association is quoted as saying “banks are selling their products below cost price” – something that can’t be kept up. So far, though, only Credit Suisse has said it will impose a cost on its customers – those that have over a million Euro in deposits.

So far so good, for most people, obviously. But only just as long as it stays at that level. As we now appear to be heading into a sort of economic slowdown, and things may get tight, this is not as sure as the expression “like money in the bank” once implied.

Update August 20 – DN.se reports that that Danish bank Jyske is now implementing a negative interest rate for its customers that have over 7.5 million kronor (about 10 million Swedish kronor, or about a million bucks) in the bank (). A customer that has 8 million kronor will pay about 48 thousand kronor to keep their money there.

Sat. 3/8 – SCB for Pride

Happy Pride everyone. In Stockholm there’s a parade today, but hell, let’s celebrate it everyday. (Not with a parade everyday though, because they really mess up traffic and people still have to get to dagis and to the dentist and make a living and the rest of it.)

Sweden is generally on the forefront of accepting people for who they are, but SvD reports today that Sweden is falling a bit behind these days. In particular, says, Alexandra Ward Slotte who travelled up for the parade, Sweden does not have a legal recognition of non-binary, or third gender (). Germany, Australia, New Zealand, various US states, India, Bangladesh, Canada, Columbia and more, recognise a third legal sex on official docs. Some can do this without any medical “test” or surgery, and in other countries a gender can be changed retroactively. So what is up in Sweden?

Of course, making available a third sex in official contexts has been talked about, but when even a person’s personnumber indicates their sex you know it’s not going to be an easy adaption. (Check the second to last number in yours – even numbers for women, odd numbers for men. I checked mine, and yup, there it was. It felt sort of weird, and wrong – what else is in there?)

Sweden’s Television did a quick survey as part of their 2018 election coverage and found that the Social Democrats, Green, Center, Liberal and Left parties indicated they thought making a third gender option was a good suggestion while the Moderates, Christian Democrats and Sweden Democrats (surprise! not) thought it wasn’t. It’s unclear what the question was exactly, but this gives an idea of how the parties are thinking about it at least.

Meanwhile, Sweden’s statistical bureau (SCB) has opened for a change to its guidelines regarding making room for a third gender, and has sought out responses (remissvar) from a slew of other government agencies (). So far, at least, the National Board of Health and Welfare (Socialstyrelsen) has returned a positive answer.

It makes you wonder, when a statistics agency, of all agencies, is ahead of the curve.

Tues. 23/7 – do your tax evasion here

Sweden got a thumbs down from the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) regarding its measures to counter tax evasion, SvD reports today (). Sweden has done nothing, they say, (zip zero nada) to make illegal the kind of money-moving that resulted in the “cum-ex files” international financial scandal last year.

Basically, the scheme involved asking tax authorities for tax refunds on taxes that were actually never paid. In Sweden, (and this is grossly simplifying), it mostly involved what was called a cum-cum deal (pronounced kume, presumably) in which investors “loaned out” their holdings to a frontman to avoid paying withholding tax.

It’s complicated. Plus, and this is obviously embarassing for Skatteverket and its fans, it wasn’t actually illegal in most cases – it was just sort of morally corrupt.

ESMA is urging Sweden to get a move on fixing this issue. Germany’s already done their part.

Tues. 23/7 – an SOS for the SEK

Although the Swedish Central Bank (Riksbanken) had a darn cheery economic prognosis for Sweden earlier this month, a report from Capital Economics (a pretty huge, international, economic research company) predicts that the krona may sink to a new low by the end of the year – 11 kronor to the Euro. DN.se reports (bit.ly/DNekonomi) that Capital Economics has Swedish household consumption down 1% in May compared to last year – the largest drop in a decade. This bodes ill for the economy as a whole.

So why is the krona so weak? Why doesn’t it buy so much anymore? Why does so much seem so much more expensive? It’s good for people bringing over money, or if you’re a tourist, but it’s not generally good when you have to pay a lot more for things than normal.

Some people think that the krona has simply been overvalued before and this is the new normal (see Handelsbank’s economists on Affärs Världen ). Or, that it’s not really that bad – if you compare it to even smaller currencies. But if you don’t think that way, then there are a bunch of different factors to consider. DN.se’s Carl Johan von Seth had a few ideas a while back ():

Low interest rates. You’ve probably noticed how nobody is getting any interest on the money in their bank account. It’s the same on a country scale. Other countries are simply not buying the krona because they won’t make any money on it, and if no one’s buying, it further weakens the krona. Snow, meet ball.
Trump. Let’s just go ahead and blame him for this too, right? But we can! The dollar is super strong, and every time the Fed even thinks about raising the interest rate to keep things on an even keel, Trump is right there tweeting some really dark shade. The tax reform he implemented is also keeping the dollar strong (and possibly the economy good but that’s another, complicated, blog post). Plus, the trade war he’s engaged in with China makes people (read: economies) nervous, and nervous economies don’t buy weak currencies, like the krona. Especially when it’s known how dependent Sweden is on international trade.
The European Central Bank. The Euro is pretty strong these days, (which also makes the krona look weak), but has an even lower inflation than Sweden. In that comparison, Sweden’s higher inflation is unfavorable.
Sweden’s Minister for Finance, Magdalena Andersson. Some argue that Andersson’s relatively restrictive budgeting and the resulting budget surplus is part of the reason. If she had spent a bit more, maybe the krona would be stronger. (Then again, the budget surplus is a good thing to have if/when the economy weakens. Always an argument.)
The Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (“Finansinspektion”). The housing market is an acknowledged hot mess, and the Finance inspection’s new demand for paying off one’s mortgage and a higher down payment requirement has had both the desired effect (dampening the housing market) and an unwanted side effect (dampening the housing market). Less building can be good in some ways but also affects Swedish economic growth negatively. Exactly, contributing to a weak krona again.

Congratulations on making it all the way through this blog post. Now go out and spend some money to bring up our economy. Or save the money in your mattress for the worse days to come. No advice here, this is just a blog post.

Sun. 21/7 – electricity companies busted

The Swedish Consumer Agency (Konsumentverket) criticized a slew of Swedish electricity companies for hard to read, and even harder to understand, cost information, Dn.se reported today. The Agency took a look at the websites of 13 companies, and found every single one of them lacking: One example was not being clear that the distribution charge (nätpris) wasn’t included in the cost they were quoting on the website. Since the distribution cost is a huge part of any electricity bill, and is completely seperate from the cost of the electricity you actually use, this is a good thing to be aware of.

According to SvD (https://www.svd.se/se-hur-mycket-ditt-elpris-forandrats) the cost of electricity delivered to the average home has increased 24% between 2013-2018. In many areas, up north in particular, the cost has increased up to 60%. There are a few teeny weeny counties where the cost has decreased, but they’re as easy to see as stars in the night sky over Manhattan.

The electricity companies have until the 30th of August to respond, after which the Consumer Agency may take further measures.

Tag: svenska politik