poll Archives • SwedeInternational

4 Dec. – Kristersson at the Rubicon

Åkesson now allowed to join in some reindeer games
pic: expressen.se

As DN’s Ewa Sandberg put it, the Moderate party leader Ulf Kristersson ripped the bandaid off, and had an official chinwag today with Jimmie Åkesson, leader of the Sweden Democrats. The taboo of speaking to Åkesson in an official capacity has officially been challenged, even more than when the Christian Democratic party leader had lunch with him. DN’s editorial board called it “wrong”, and “ill-judged”, and “unwise” – because the Sweden Democrats (SD) are “not a party like the others. It’s a movement with roots in nazism” (DN.se/bandaid).

The latest and most stodgy poll of them all, the poll done twice a year by Statistics Sweden, had the Social Democrats at their lowest level in years (for the SCB poll) at 26.3% and the Sweden Democrats at their highest, with 22.6%. The Moderate party, who has almost always been Sweden’s second most popular party and opposition leader, was, again, a decided third (DN.se/SCBpoll).

When he was first elected party leader, Kristersson said he would never speak with, negotiate or compromise with the Sweden Democrats. But that was over two years ago, when it was still possible to bully them in parliament, and not let them join in any reindeer games. SD has since only become more popular, and nearly a quarter of the population is giving them the thumbs up. For the Moderate party (still the party that knows what fork to use between them) to gain power and get its policies through parliament to make its supporters happy, it needs SD. The Moderates appear to have given up the idea of getting the previous Alliance together completely, and are throwing a feather of their hat in with the Sweden Democrats. Rubicon, crossed.

As previously noted in this blog, the Sweden Democrats have had it easy, having never had to face the music for their enacted politics because they’ve never had the chance to enact any of their policies on a national scale (just in Sölvesborg and the jury is out over there).

But even if the majority of Sweden’s voters might someday vote for SD, which isn’t likely, maybe it won’t really matter – because according to Dagens Nyheter “the majority is never definitively right, even if it calls itself “the people” (DN.se/bandaid). Some people might think a statement like that is even more scary than SD.

27 Nov – unavoidable poll results

It happened again – the Sweden Democrats tied for first place in the latest poll. This time it was the Dagens Nyheter/Ipsos poll, whose results came out this afternoon. In the previous poll, the Sweden Democrats (SD) and the Social Democrats were also equal at the number one spot, but the margin of error negated the certainty of results. This time’s results confirm the trend (DN.se/Poll).

For a party that all the other parties wouldn’t speak to – ignoring them like children in a playground – the Sweden Democrats have done ok. More than ok. And the irony is that they’ve done so well – arguably – because everyone else was excluding them from their games and policy making. The Sweden Democrats have gotten votes from everyone who blames immigration for Sweden’s woes, from those tired of the current parties, and from those who protest how things seem to be going in Sweden – all the while being spared from having to face voter fire and ire because they haven’t been responsible for any of it: They’ve been kept away from any formal position of power, but also from responsibility.

The changes in percentage points were small and can easily sway another way come next poll. However it appears clear that Nyamko Sabuni is not raising her Liberal party’s numbers, and that Moderate party leader Ulf Kristersson is going to have a very hard time over the next few months (weeks?) making the decision of how close to the Sweden Democrats he’s willing to get. If he’s willing to formally stand with SD, the right block composed of (theoretically speaking) the Moderates, the Christian Democrats and SD get 48% of voter support, in contrast to the 42% the consortium of Social Democrats, Center, Liberal and Green parties have together. However, these parties have the support of the Left party: However unhappy the Left is with the Social Democrats, it’s highly unlikely they’ll help to vote them out. The Left gets generally at least 8% of voter support, which tips the scale.

The problem with lumping the right block parties together is that SD isn’t really a conservative party, but instead has often actually voted with Social Democrats on policy questions. What unites them with the right block is largely opposition to the current Social Democratic and Green party government, and a promise for a tougher stance against crime. How close they really want to dance, especially at future balls, is hard to say.

As mentioned in this blog the other day, the Sweden Democrats have made a lot of platform changes, making themselves over into a party you could invite in without having to be too scared of what the neighbours might think. They are, and have been for years, much too big to ignore. 25% of the population, at last poll, is ready to come to any party where SD is included.

24 sep. – Moderate party still moderately popular

The latest shows that the Moderate party is back at the level it was last October, before the alliance fell apart. The recent numbers show them having a 19% support rating, here tied with the Sweden Democrats (only about a week ago, another poll showed the Sweden Democrats at 20.2% – but that was then). The Social Democrats came in at 26%, and the Center and Left parties tied for a distant 3rd at 9% each. In last place, tied at 5%, are the Liberal and Green parties. The question asked was, “if the election was today, who would you vote for?”.

This seems to be the new normal. 26% is pretty much a new low for the Social Democrats, but they’re still the party most people are going to. Analysts at DN/Ipsos remark that SD, M and KD (at 7%) are gaining and losing voters mostly to each other, and Sabuni’s non-lift for the Liberal party is becoming only clearer. The Moderate party’s 19% is up, but only from a pretty low level previously.

If anyone was looking for a bump, or a dip, from the right’s trip to Tel Aviv, the non-agreement on fighting gang violence, the bank tax, gas tax or tax rebate for pensioners, the free year, Sölvesborg, Shekarabi’s facebook comments – or basically any effect from the myriad of issues over the last few weeks, is going to be pretty disappointed.

Sep. 14 – at least Social Democrats still no. 1

pic: svd.se/ny-svd-sifo-sd-far-hogsta-siffran-nagonsin

The Sweden Democrats are at a new high in the polls. At 20.2 % they are again the second most popular party in Sweden, with a 2% increase in support since the last poll. The increase is largely due to increased support in Stockholm. It is also said that SD gains when the other parties try to shut it out, like in the current all-party-minus-SD talks on how to meet the rise in violent crime ().

Just today’s headlines – “Man taken into custody after morning’s shooting” () and “Explosion in Lund – female student seriously injured” () – are examples of what voters are waking up to. Morning’s shooting? It makes you wonder what’s on the agenda for the afternoon. The student was injured in the explosion directed at the corner store below her on the first floor.

It’s a dangerous development when people don’t feel safe. It’s a dangerous development when what politicians do and what they describe isn’t matched by what people are experiencing. It’s easy to understand that people cast about for something untried, since what’s been tried isn’t addressing their concerns. The government, and the parties they’re working with, need to up their game. That at least the Social Democratic party is still no. 1 is not good enough.

30 aug. – more upset politicians

*pic:* https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/rekordhogt-fortroende-for-akesson/

There have been many politicians speaking their outrage over the violent crimes that have made the papers recently – see yesterday’s post. But they’re not happy today either. Despite concerted efforts at ignoring, freezing out, shunning and generally speaking ill of the Sweden Democrats, the popularity of party leader Jimmie Åkesson continues unabated. The latest DN/Ipsos poll shows that the number of people who express a strong confidence in – nay, have faith in – Jimmie Åkesson, is at its highest level ever: 27%. ().

Somewhat comforting might be that 68% of respondents say they have no confidence in Jimmie Åkesson. But that is his lowest number ever. As Expressen notes, he now has fewer voters opposed to him than Isabella Lövin, the Green Party leader.

That has just got to hurt.

Stefan Löfven (S) remains at the top with a 40% trusted rating. He is followed by Ebba Busch Thor (KD) at 35% and Ulf Kristersson (M) at 31%. Jonas Sjöstedt (V) and Annie Lööf (C) are neck and neck at 30%. Jimmie comes next with his 27%, followed by the last three: Sabuni (L) at 20% and the two Green Party leaders Lövin and Bolund at 17% and 11% respectively.

Jenny Madestam at Expressen explains the phenomenon by reasoning that Åkesson is a leader with firm principles: “He’s a known quantity – you know where you have him.” Possibly, the razor that is the January Agreement between the left block and members of the right block has cut both ways. Löfven’s average numbers can reflect a lack of enthusiasm for giving in to a chunk of right-block demands, and Lööf’s numbers (down from 41% last September) a reflection of the glitter vest and pompoms she waves around for the Social Democrats.

On the other hand, these numbers can mean very little in the larger scheme of things. Everything can be explained, or explained away. The latter is more likely: As Dagens Nyheter notes, every single party leader has more voters that don’t have faith in them than voters that do (). If that doesn’t take some mental manipulation to handle, nothing does.