Moderates Archives • SwedeInternational

5 Dec. – saving Unemployment and face

future uncertain
pic: Per Gudmundson, SvD

Remember back in November, when Jonas Sjöstedt threatened to bring a no confidence vote to the floor to protest the government’s plan to completely reform the Swedish Public Employment Service (better known as Arbetsförmedlingen)? If you forgot, there’s a post to read about it here. And if you didn’t, well, time is almost up. If nothing happens, the vote of no confidence on Eva Nordmark, Minister for Employment, will happen on Tuesday.

When Sjöstedt, leader of the Left party, first made this threat, he was not just protesting the disassembly and privatisation of the Employment Service, but also the provision of the January Agreement that said that under no circumstances was the Left party to have any influence over government policy. The provision was stipulated by the Center and Liberal parties specifically as a requirement for their support for the formation of the Löfven government.

It’s understandable that this was part of the Left party’s anger, as the government is absolutely dependent on the Left party to stay in power (otherwise they don’t have the votes to pass their budget). Still, it was likely the government thought that they were safe because the Left party would never vote with the Sweden Democrats, and the two right block parties, to topple them…

Until today, it turned out, when the Left party became willing to do just that. Apparently, the meetings held between the Social Democrats and the Left party have not been assuaging enough. The Left party is determined to change the course of the government in respect to the current privatisation of the Employment Service.

Despite the appearance of a wrench being thrown into the disassembly work, threats being tossed about, and very serious looks on all party leader’s faces, it’s likely most of them are glad for Sjöstedt’s moves. The Unemployment Services’ quick and dirty disassembly was causing a lot of worry and problems at the municipal level: When workers are getting unemployment help they do it through the Employment Service. Without an Employment Service office nearby, the sooner the unemployed would turn to the local municipality for help – and that would be expensive, as well as more than the municipalities thought they could handle.

With the way things were going, it looked like a disaster was shaping up. Despite having previously been very much in favor of dismantling the Employment Service, the Moderate party and the Christian Democrats are now saying that they have always thought the deconstruction was going too quickly, and that’s why they are backing Sjöstedt. They are also happy when their former Alliance parties, the Center and Liberal parties, don’t get what they said they were going to get by leaving the Alliance and throwing their support behind the Social Democrats: If they can make the Center and Liberal parties look bad, the Moderate and Christian Democrats won’t be fussy about how.

Even Löfven is secretly happy because he has definitely not been a fan of this process, but was forced into moving quickly by the Center and Liberal parties and the agreement they signed back in January. The Left, Moderate, and Christian Democratic parties are actually doing him a favour if he can get out of it.

What remains to be done is for Löfven to spend the next few days finding ways to pacify the Center and Liberal party leaders and help them find ways to save face when the Unemployment Service is now not going to be disassembled as rapidly as first imagined. The Center and Liberal parties know that if the no confidence vote goes through, the government will be significantly weakened and they could find themselves on their own. A way to avoid this is most likely going to be found.

Meanwhile, Minister Eva Nordmark must be feeling a bit like a punching bag. A no confidence vote is supposed to mark no confidence in the Minister. The Left, Moderate, and Christian Democratic parties, plus the Sweden Democrats, though, are not actually protesting her, or the way she is doing her job: They’re using a no confidence vote against her to not just protest a current political course of action, but to get back at the government and its supporting parties. It’s going to be hard to see any impressed faces on the voters anytime soon.

21 Nov. – another no confidence motion in the works

Sjöstedt has no confidence
pic: Jessica Gow/TT

Jonas Sjöstedt, leader of the Left Party, has threatened to set a no confidence vote into motion against Minister for Employment Eva Nordmark (read about no confidence votes here). Sjöstedt has made five demands, of which the first one is the big one:

the government stops the privatisation of the Swedish Public Employment Service, aka Arbetsförmedlingen,
the government allocates extra funds to stabilize the Employment Service’s ongoing work,
the government creates an economically detailed and timely plan for stopping the closing of Employment Service offices, and ensures a continued presence across the country creates a plan and make the necessary decisions in the law or in regulations to maintain and develop the Employment Service’s special competencies regarding special needs and support for the disabled,
the government states that any reform of the Employment Services will first be fully investigated in all relevant aspects, including cost estimates and transition procedures, before any part of the Employment Service is changed. An important part of this investigation is how municipalities’ responsibilities and economic situation is affected.

Reforming the Employment Service was a condition set by the Center Party to not vote down the Social Democrats in their bid to remain in power after the last election. Together with the Liberal party, the Center party and the two government parties agreed to a 73 point plan (also known as the January Agreement) that was filled with demands, including a total change in how the Employment Service was set up.

Many of the changes were anathema to Social Democratic voters, let alone Left party voters. The point that likely most sticks in the Left party’s craw is where it says ““This agreement means that the Left Party will not have influence over the political direction in Sweden during the coming term of office” (socialdemocraterna.se).

Sjöstedt is now considering calling the government’s bluff. Only together with the Left party does the government, together with the support from the Center and Liberal parties guaranteed by the government fulfilling the 73-point agreement, have the votes to pass legislation. Up until now, and even with the clause that was created to shut them out, the Left party has not withdrawn their support for the government: The alternative was clearly worse for them.

However, it seems that the Left party’s acquiescence is over, and that they’re even willing to accept support for their no-confidence motion from political opponents. The Sweden Democrats are already 100% behind the Left party’s idea, and even the Moderate Party is considering it. “We want to unseat all this government’s ministers, so it’s very likely that we’ll go along with a vote of no confidence” remarked Jimmie Åkesson, leader of the Sweden Democrats. Although reforming the Employment Service has been part of their platform for a long time, the Moderate party has problems with how it’s been implemented. Group leader for the Moderate party in Parliament, Tobias Billström, commented that although the Left and Moderate parties have very different ideas on how the Service should be run, the current plans for reforming it are “poorly thought out and badly instituted” and lack parliamentary support, to boot (SvD.se/Nordmark).

The question is what the government can do to appease the Left party, while not alienating the Center party. Also the Liberal party is left in a crunch situation: they went along with supporting a Social Democratic government largely to keep the Sweden Democrats isolated,and only as long as the January Agreement was upheld by all sides. If the government downshifts on its commitment to the agreement, the Liberals will be left hanging, and this when they are only just barely above the 4% threshold.

Sjöstedt has said that the government has two weeks to respond before he makes a no confidence motion.

11 Nov. – a name, a vote, and a meeting

can this wave be stopped?
pic: watersource.awa.asn.au

In the wake of the shooting and the explosion over the weekend, that the police now suspect are connected, there are several actions in the works: the police have labelled their response an “extraordinary operation” (särskilt händelse), the Moderate party has said they are behind the Sweden Democrats’ decision to call a vote of no confidence in Minister for Justice Morgan Johansson, and the Malmö police are organizing a special conference, with the local criminals.

Only the terrorist attack on the pedestrians on Drottninggatan in April of 2017, and the forest fires in the summer of 2018, have previously been classified as “extraordinary operations” by the police department. The current operation is being called Operation Rimfrost (hoarfrost in English), and allows the police department to make the decision-making process faster and increases their authority to reprioritize and move police forces around. “The number of persons in criminal networks shall be reduced by force” said Stefan Hector, chief of operations for NOA, the national operations division, “by which we mean arrests, charges and sentencing.” The police hope to seize more weapons and explosives as well. “In about 6 months we will have seen a difference” Hector predicted (SvD.se/rimfrost).

In related news, the Sweden Democrats have said they will be bringing a motion of no confidence in Minister for Justice Johansson to the floor at the party leader debate on Wednesday – and the Moderate party has said they will support it. Jimmie Åkesson, leader of the Sweden Democrats, declared that it was “obvious that the Minister for Justice, who in this case has the ultimate responsibility to handle this situation, does not understand its seriousness. He can’t handle it, and therefore parliament should in some way make clear its dissatisfaction with the work that is unfortunately not happening” (SR.se/Åkesson).

Moderate party leader Ulf Kristersson echoed his colleague. “It is right to direct a vote of no confidence in the Minister for Justice. For the last five years, he has been ultimately responsible for the situation we’ve arrived at in Sweden. It’s untenable. Either the minister does his job or he takes the consequences and resigns. We will be voting no confidence” (SR.se/Åkesson).

For a vote of no confidence to go through, at least 35 parliament members need to demand it. If a majority in parliament (175 members) vote yes, the minister in question must resign. So far, in Swedish history, there have only been nine – count ’em, nine – votes of no confidence. None of them has ever resulted in a minister’s resignation.

As far the other more right parties go, the Liberals have said they will not support a vote of no confidence, but that the government must “take vigorous measures against gangs.” The Christian Democrats haven’t yet commented. It is unlikely in the extreme that the more left Green or Center party will support it, altogether making the resignation of Johansson equally unlikely. The Moderate party’s youth wing, MuF, went its mother party one better and demanded a vote of no confidence in not just the Minister of Justice Johansson, but also on Minister for Home Affairs Mikael Damberg (DN.se/MuF). That one won’t be going anywhere, for the moment at least.

Meanwhile, the local police in Malmö have called a meeting for Tuesday. With the local criminals. The criminals that come don’t have to be the most violent ones, or the leaders – as long as they have legitimacy and that the others “listen when they talk” said Glen Sjögren, coordinator the “Stop Shooting” project (read more about the project here).

“We’re giving them a message – that we don’t want them to die and we don’t want them to kill someone. If they, or someone in their group, commit a crime involving lethal violence or explosives we’re going to focus on their whole group. If they want to leave their criminal life behind them, we’re ready to help them with that too” said Sjögren. “The goal is to stop the current crime wave and to prevent an escalation” (DN.se/slutaskjuta).

It seems like it’s all hands on deck, but whether or not talking leads to actions and then to an effect is anyone’s guess.

18 Oct. – party! (congress)

Moderate party leader Ulf Kristersson at the helm
pic: svd.se

The Moderate Party’s national congress is still going on and the suggestions thrown out there for debate include increasingly controversial crime fighting measures like visitation zones, increasingly state-reducing measures like no income taxes, a prohibition on head coverings/veils for girls in school, the abolition of public service television, and and even a stewing dissatisfaction, but one certainly not up for discussion, with the leadership of Ulf Kristersson. Congresses are for debate and are pretty refreshing in the sense that a lot of things can be said at a party congress (often from the youth wing) that can’t be said in polite company – and that don’t stand a snowflake’s chance in Florida of becoming party politics (see the Center party’s position on polygamy back in 2006).

Often, a congress is a chance to let off steam and bask in the company of other like-mindeds, but with the Sweden Democrats having taken over the position of second largest party in Sweden after the Social Democrats, the pressure is on. According to Aftonbladet, though, many Moderate party members don’t think that the Sweden Democrats are the absolute worst party in Sweden -only 12% said they agreed with that statement. One can assume that the Left party or maybe the Green party hold that honour, with the Social Democrats or even the Center party a close third.

Perhaps the most problematic for the Moderate party is the lack of enthusiasm that Kristersson garners. Even among Moderate party members only 22% would call him visionary, and only 10% of the general public would call him that. This might be the place where the Moderate party needs to roll up its sleeves and do something about changing.

14 Oct. – Löfven reported – again

the hot seat of a KU committee interview
pic: axisimagingnews.com

Moderate party leader Ulf Kristersson has reported Prime Mininster Stefan Löfven to the Committee on Constitutional Affairs (konstitutionsutskottet). When Stefan Löfven said in an interview the other day that Sweden needed to take in fewer refugees, coalition partner the Green Party hit the roof: Taking in fewer refugees is not their party line at all, so how could Löfven have said that? Löfven responded that he was only speaking as party leader of the Social Democrats at that particular moment.

“But who would know that?” is the Moderate party question. As Prime Minister, Löfven speaks for the government. In all that he says, goes the the thought, one “should be able to count on that the statements coming from the Prime Minister are correct” (fplus.se). To Expressen, migration policy spokesperson Maria Malmer Stenergard from the Moderate party said that she would not have reported it if she hadn’t believed that a wrong had been committed (fplus.se).

A report to the Committee on Constitutional Affairs sounds serious, perhaps, and it should be, but it’s not, really. The committee is made up of 17 parliament representatives from all the parties, supported by an small office of civil servants. Their job is to review the performance of government ministries and the handling of government affairs. (They also go through documents from the various government offices to make sure that laws and praxes were followed in all cases.)

When someone is reported, they interview the person. These interviews are public, so they can be awkward. Most of the time, that’s the point. However, if a charge is leveled then it goes directly to the Swedish supreme court. This has happened exactly once since the mid 1800’s. Generally, someone gets mildly slapped on the wrist and told not to do whatever it was again, but in a next-to-worst-case, a committee report can be used as the basis for a non-confidence vote.

According to Expressen, Stefan Löfven was reported to the committee (KU-anmäld) 27 times before he’d even completed a full term of office (Expressen.se/KULöfven). Most of the reporting has been leveled at him from the Moderate party, naturally enough. But every party except the Green Party has reported him at least once. In his ten years of office, ex-Prime Minister Göran Persson was reported “only” 26 times, so we’re talking about a huge increase in reporting especially in the last few years.

This has, of course, watered down the seriousness of being reported significantly, and seems now mostly just a show for public consumption – well, what’s more likely is that it’s a show for privately disgruntled and frustrated opposition party members. The public, at this point, is mostly just rolling their eyes.

24 sep. – Moderate party still moderately popular

The latest shows that the Moderate party is back at the level it was last October, before the alliance fell apart. The recent numbers show them having a 19% support rating, here tied with the Sweden Democrats (only about a week ago, another poll showed the Sweden Democrats at 20.2% – but that was then). The Social Democrats came in at 26%, and the Center and Left parties tied for a distant 3rd at 9% each. In last place, tied at 5%, are the Liberal and Green parties. The question asked was, “if the election was today, who would you vote for?”.

This seems to be the new normal. 26% is pretty much a new low for the Social Democrats, but they’re still the party most people are going to. Analysts at DN/Ipsos remark that SD, M and KD (at 7%) are gaining and losing voters mostly to each other, and Sabuni’s non-lift for the Liberal party is becoming only clearer. The Moderate party’s 19% is up, but only from a pretty low level previously.

If anyone was looking for a bump, or a dip, from the right’s trip to Tel Aviv, the non-agreement on fighting gang violence, the bank tax, gas tax or tax rebate for pensioners, the free year, Sölvesborg, Shekarabi’s facebook comments – or basically any effect from the myriad of issues over the last few weeks, is going to be pretty disappointed.

1 sep. – Kristersson’s top ten list

In advance of his “summer speech,” Moderate Party leader Ulf Kristersson has sent 10 suggestions to combat crime that the Moderate Party is willing to support and cooperate on to Prime Minister, and Social Democrat party leader, Stefan Löfven. Although the text isn’t public yet, several points have leaked, including a proposal to allow court witnesses to be anonymous.

Anonymous witnesses has been a recurring debate over the past couple years, as crime has risen and the number of people willing to witness, in particular in connection with gang violence, has decreased to near zero levels. Witnesses have been threatened into staying quiet, have been assaulted, and even murdered. A change of this magnitude in the Swedish court system would be difficult to get through, but already last April the government started an investigation into seeing if it would be possible under Swedish constitutional law: There are many that believe it isn’t. One country that Sweden could look at as an example is Norway, where anonymous witnesses are allowed.

SvD reports that Kristersson’s list also contains a suggestion for making it easy, and legal, for police to carry out body searches, in certain zones only, if the person is suspected, for example, of carrying an illegal weapon. No concrete suspicion must be presented for a body search to take place. The suggestion list is also said to include lowering the threshold for requiring the police to take someone into custody, and doubling the sentence of any gang member that is convicted of committing a crime. According to Kristersson, the increase in violent crime is something that requires just a broad mobilisation, and presumably some stiff law-making.

So far there has been no answer from Löfven, which is natural since perhaps it isn’t considered so seemly for the Prime Minister to jump when Kristersson says so. Kristersson says he expects an answer though: “Either he’s ready to make changes and lead the country out of this crisis, or he’s not.” “In the end,” Kristersson finished, “you have to lead the country or leave the job.”