To stay or to go – the Green party is wavering

Isabella Lövin and Per Bolund Miljöpartiet
An unhappy couple left out in the cold
pic: miljöpartiet.se

The Green party is in crisis discussions regarding staying or leaving the government, Expressen reported today. By the end of August, the government wants to have a new migration policy, one that has broad support from all the parties, done and dusted. To this end, the Social Democrats have had long and intensive discussions with the Moderate party in particular, something the Green party doesn’t appreciate at all as they and the Moderates have largely diametrical thoughts on the immigration topic. Last Friday, the discussions were particularly comprehensive – but the Green party was left out on the doorstep.

At the moment, the Social Democrats, the Moderates and the Christian Democrats are agreed, DN reports, on some sort of asylum “max number”. Even the Center party and Liberals haven’t expressed outright opposition to the concept. These three or more parties, if they come to an agreement, would get a majority in parliament. The Sweden Democrats would likely go along though, which would make a pretty much unassailable majority, even if they say they consider the proposal “way too lame” (alldeles för mesigt).

On the other hand, however, the Green party and the Left party are indignant going on outraged. “The Social Democrats are slamming the door in both our faces by negotiating with the Moderates. There is another majority here, one that the government is actually based on. Still, they turn to the Moderates. It’s refugees who will pay the price” said Left party board member Christina Höj Larsen. “It is completely unique that the government negotiates with the opposition and not its own partner” said a Green party member to Expressen. “Are all the questions we’re not agreed on to be decided with the Moderates in the future?”

When the Social Democrats first put more restrictive policies in place after the wave of immigration threatened municipality stability back in 2015, the Green party still didn’t leave the government – to the dismay and anger from a large part of their following. They will be risking that anger again if their “partner” the Social Democrats run them over again on the same question.

One thing that might make a more restrictive immigration policy more palatable, however, is if the government says no to Preem’s expansion plan (see “Preem gets a pass” here). If not, though, losing on two issues close to their heart, if that’s what happens – and when they’re supposed to be a deciding partner – might prove to be too much to swallow.

15 Jan. – unemployment getting higher

the wrong numbers are going up
pic: svt.se

Fewer jobs, more people looking for jobs, and more people losing their jobs, DN writes, summing up the reasons why the unemployment rate in Sweden is rising again. The unemployment rate is now at 7.2%, higher than it’s been in two years, and it’s across the board – young people, Swedish-born, foreign-born, women and men.

On the other hand, however, the Swedish Public Employment Office (Arbetsförmedling) writes, there are still a lot of jobs out there – if you’re willing to “broaden your profession” and/or move. Annika Sundén, chief analyst at the Employment Office, writes that the job market has been very strong the last few years, and is now coming down from a high. Suzanne Spector, senior analyst at Nordea, SvD writes, is in agreement, saying that jobs are still being found – just there are more looking for them, and it takes more time.

The Swedish Trade Union Organization, however (Landsorganisation, LO), is criticising the government for acting too slowly, for one thing. It also criticises the Moderate and Christian Democratic parties for the budget they pushed through after the 2018 election, plus the government for the January Agreement and going along with the demands from the Center and Liberal parties to reform the Employment Office (reforms that were later cancelled under threat, see this post, this post and this post).

Another critique that LO directs towards the government is for cancelling the “extra service” jobs (extratjänster) that were doled out by the Employment Office. Extratjänster jobs were jobs in social services like health care and elder care which were heavily subsidized by the government. They were created to help people who are otherwise “a long way from the job market” (långtidsarbetslösa) to get into, or back into, the job market. The program was severely panned since permanent jobs were seldom offered to the persons after their subsidized employment was over. The jobs did raise the employment numbers, and kept some people in jobs, so the measure can (in some ways) be put down as a success, but many thought it was an expensive program that was merely obfuscating the real employment numbers.

Lars Jagrán, SvD reports, analyst at the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise (better known as Svenskt Näringsliv), remarked that the higher unemployment was expected, but was sorry nonetheless. “Those that haven’t gotten work during the good economy are going to have a harder time now, which will make integration even more difficult. ”

The Social Democrats don’t seem so worried about the numbers. Minister for Employment, Eva Nordmark, also said the higher numbers were expected and that counter measures have been put in place: 1.3 billion kronor has been earmarked for a jobs package, 900 million kronor is set to strengthen the Employment Office, and five million has been directed to the municipalities to help strengthen their economy.

“As the Minister for Employment, I feel proud that the government is meeting the situation that we see around us – we’re not at a loss, saying “goodness, oh dear” Nordmark said (oj, hoppsan). “We know what’s going on, our finances are good and we have been able to pull our efforts together now when we see a downturn on the way.”

It is precisely that Sweden’s economy is, and has been, so strong that the Left party is pushing to use that money – and to borrow more – to send out to the municipalities. The Moderate party has also just gone on record saying that more money has to be sent to the municipalities to prevent the reduction in services in the health, school, and elder care sectors: They may even in the near future join forces (as they did in regards to the Employment Office reform) to threaten the government into sending more funds to the local governments. The difference in their approaches is that the Left party wants the government to take the required monies out of savings, while the Moderate party would rather keep the savings and take it out of the foreign welfare budget.

Way back in 2014, the Social Democratic party went into the election with a promise that Sweden would have the lowest unemployment in Europe in 2020. Not going to happen. But it wasn’t a smart thing to promise in the first place.

5 Dec. – saving Unemployment and face

future uncertain
pic: Per Gudmundson, SvD

Remember back in November, when Jonas Sjöstedt threatened to bring a no confidence vote to the floor to protest the government’s plan to completely reform the Swedish Public Employment Service (better known as Arbetsförmedlingen)? If you forgot, there’s a post to read about it here. And if you didn’t, well, time is almost up. If nothing happens, the vote of no confidence on Eva Nordmark, Minister for Employment, will happen on Tuesday.

When Sjöstedt, leader of the Left party, first made this threat, he was not just protesting the disassembly and privatisation of the Employment Service, but also the provision of the January Agreement that said that under no circumstances was the Left party to have any influence over government policy. The provision was stipulated by the Center and Liberal parties specifically as a requirement for their support for the formation of the Löfven government.

It’s understandable that this was part of the Left party’s anger, as the government is absolutely dependent on the Left party to stay in power (otherwise they don’t have the votes to pass their budget). Still, it was likely the government thought that they were safe because the Left party would never vote with the Sweden Democrats, and the two right block parties, to topple them…

Until today, it turned out, when the Left party became willing to do just that. Apparently, the meetings held between the Social Democrats and the Left party have not been assuaging enough. The Left party is determined to change the course of the government in respect to the current privatisation of the Employment Service.

Despite the appearance of a wrench being thrown into the disassembly work, threats being tossed about, and very serious looks on all party leader’s faces, it’s likely most of them are glad for Sjöstedt’s moves. The Unemployment Services’ quick and dirty disassembly was causing a lot of worry and problems at the municipal level: When workers are getting unemployment help they do it through the Employment Service. Without an Employment Service office nearby, the sooner the unemployed would turn to the local municipality for help – and that would be expensive, as well as more than the municipalities thought they could handle.

With the way things were going, it looked like a disaster was shaping up. Despite having previously been very much in favor of dismantling the Employment Service, the Moderate party and the Christian Democrats are now saying that they have always thought the deconstruction was going too quickly, and that’s why they are backing Sjöstedt. They are also happy when their former Alliance parties, the Center and Liberal parties, don’t get what they said they were going to get by leaving the Alliance and throwing their support behind the Social Democrats: If they can make the Center and Liberal parties look bad, the Moderate and Christian Democrats won’t be fussy about how.

Even Löfven is secretly happy because he has definitely not been a fan of this process, but was forced into moving quickly by the Center and Liberal parties and the agreement they signed back in January. The Left, Moderate, and Christian Democratic parties are actually doing him a favour if he can get out of it.

What remains to be done is for Löfven to spend the next few days finding ways to pacify the Center and Liberal party leaders and help them find ways to save face when the Unemployment Service is now not going to be disassembled as rapidly as first imagined. The Center and Liberal parties know that if the no confidence vote goes through, the government will be significantly weakened and they could find themselves on their own. A way to avoid this is most likely going to be found.

Meanwhile, Minister Eva Nordmark must be feeling a bit like a punching bag. A no confidence vote is supposed to mark no confidence in the Minister. The Left, Moderate, and Christian Democratic parties, plus the Sweden Democrats, though, are not actually protesting her, or the way she is doing her job: They’re using a no confidence vote against her to not just protest a current political course of action, but to get back at the government and its supporting parties. It’s going to be hard to see any impressed faces on the voters anytime soon.

21 Nov. – another no confidence motion in the works

Sjöstedt has no confidence
pic: Jessica Gow/TT

Jonas Sjöstedt, leader of the Left Party, has threatened to set a no confidence vote into motion against Minister for Employment Eva Nordmark (read about no confidence votes here). Sjöstedt has made five demands, of which the first one is the big one:

  1. the government stops the privatisation of the Swedish Public Employment Service, aka Arbetsförmedlingen,
  2. the government allocates extra funds to stabilize the Employment Service’s ongoing work,
  3. the government creates an economically detailed and timely plan for stopping the closing of Employment Service offices, and ensures a continued presence across the country creates a plan and make the necessary decisions in the law or in regulations to maintain and develop the Employment Service’s special competencies regarding special needs and support for the disabled,
  4. the government states that any reform of the Employment Services will first be fully investigated in all relevant aspects, including cost estimates and transition procedures, before any part of the Employment Service is changed. An important part of this investigation is how municipalities’ responsibilities and economic situation is affected.

Reforming the Employment Service was a condition set by the Center Party to not vote down the Social Democrats in their bid to remain in power after the last election. Together with the Liberal party, the Center party and the two government parties agreed to a 73 point plan (also known as the January Agreement) that was filled with demands, including a total change in how the Employment Service was set up.

Many of the changes were anathema to Social Democratic voters, let alone Left party voters. The point that likely most sticks in the Left party’s craw is where it says ““This agreement means that the Left Party will not have influence over the political direction in Sweden during the coming term of office” (socialdemocraterna.se).

Sjöstedt is now considering calling the government’s bluff. Only together with the Left party does the government, together with the support from the Center and Liberal parties guaranteed by the government fulfilling the 73-point agreement, have the votes to pass legislation. Up until now, and even with the clause that was created to shut them out, the Left party has not withdrawn their support for the government: The alternative was clearly worse for them.

However, it seems that the Left party’s acquiescence is over, and that they’re even willing to accept support for their no-confidence motion from political opponents. The Sweden Democrats are already 100% behind the Left party’s idea, and even the Moderate Party is considering it. “We want to unseat all this government’s ministers, so it’s very likely that we’ll go along with a vote of no confidence” remarked Jimmie Åkesson, leader of the Sweden Democrats. Although reforming the Employment Service has been part of their platform for a long time, the Moderate party has problems with how it’s been implemented. Group leader for the Moderate party in Parliament, Tobias Billström, commented that although the Left and Moderate parties have very different ideas on how the Service should be run, the current plans for reforming it are “poorly thought out and badly instituted” and lack parliamentary support, to boot (SvD.se/Nordmark).

The question is what the government can do to appease the Left party, while not alienating the Center party. Also the Liberal party is left in a crunch situation: they went along with supporting a Social Democratic government largely to keep the Sweden Democrats isolated,and only as long as the January Agreement was upheld by all sides. If the government downshifts on its commitment to the agreement, the Liberals will be left hanging, and this when they are only just barely above the 4% threshold.

Sjöstedt has said that the government has two weeks to respond before he makes a no confidence motion.

2 Nov. – Left party wording raises questions

Left party grapples with honor violence
pic: futureswithoutviolence.org

The Left party began its congress this past Friday in Göteborg. Although the final decision on the wording of the party platform won’t be taken until May, suggestions for changes have been circulating in Left party circles for a while. One of the suggested changes has met with a lot of critique, also from Jonas Sjöstedt, the Left party’s leader.

In the platform suggestion in question, neither “honor based violence” (hedersvåld) nor “honor based oppression” (hedersförtryck) are mentioned. Instead, the issue is tucked into the larger section with the title Gender Power Hierarchy (könsmaktsordning) where it states “Disparagement takes different forms, and its legitimization can be more or less hidden by everything from the exercise of authority and honor-related concepts to social norms” (SvD.se/honor). The term “honor-related concepts” is a pretty heavily watered down variation on honor-based violence and oppression, people are saying.

The Left party has been accused of being soft on honor-based violence before. In August, representative Amineh Kakabaveh was forced out of (or stepped down from, depending on how you see it) the Left party. According to her, her party made it impossible for her to remain a representative by ignoring her at meetings: It was punishment for speaking out too strongly on women’s behalf, and for criticizing the party for not doing nearly enough to support women (see this post).

Similar critique is now being aimed at the party, and this time from another long-term party member, Jonas Lundgren. The phrase honor-related concepts “relativizes” honor based violence, he says. “It’s like trying to prettify the control and oppression that many suffer in honor’s name” (SvD.se/honor). “We have a feminist platform that declares that these questions are big and important. And yet, dammit, (lik förbannat) there have been people in central positions in the party that have questioned that analysis, wondering if it isn’t an instance of racism” (DN.se/honor).

“This was a mistake in the program” said Jonas Sjöstedt. “It’s likely that there will be rewrites, and the words honor-related concepts will be changed” said Hanna Cederin, the party program committee’s convener (DN.se/honor).

That sounds like an excellent idea.

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28 aug. – Kakabaveh shut down

pic: aftonbladet.se

Goodbye to one of the Left Party’s strongest voices for women, particularly for women who are caught and held in “honor cultures” (hederskultur). Amineh Kakabaveh is (soon to be was) a popular and outspoken parliament member since 2008, and is the founder of the feminist organization Neither slut nor subdued (Varken hora eller kuvad).

Kakabaveh has often been in conflict with her own party, and in the last election did not take an active stand against her supporters who campaigned for her personally. The Left Party does not condone a personal vote in elections, holding instead that it is the party that must be voted for, not its members. Kakabaveh has been very public in her feminist views and has not been shy in saying that no party in Sweden, including her own, does enough to support women. Instead of blaming more abstract oppressors such as “patriarchal structure,” Kakabaveh directed her ire at particular countries and religions, and even – gasp – certain sisters, as the parties guilty of oppressing women (). This didn’t go over well with everyone, especially some people from these countries. Others applauded her courage in taking a stand and for saying it like it is. But it was no secret that Jonas Sjöstedt, the Left Party leader, wasn’t a big fan. Among many voters, her standing matched his.

Not attending weekly Left Party meetings, not paying the Left Party tax, spreading fake news and falsely representing Left Party policies are her crimes, according to party secretary Aron Etzler (). She has let her party down, he said. The Left Party tax (partiskatt) is money that Left Party parliament members are to take out of their parliament salary and give back to the party.

Responding to DN, Kakabaveh said the entire thing came as a surprise. Her work with the organisation Neither slut nor subdued has though, she admitted, been a thorn in her party’s side for a long time. And, she said, there is no use going to meetings if you are shunned and ignored.

If Kakabaveh refuses to leave her seat although she has been excluded from her party, she will become one of the “politically independent” (politiska vildar) in parliament, of which there are now several (mostly ex-members of the Sweden Democrats). Although they keep their votes (and their salary and attendant perks), in reality they are rarely heard, seen or have any influence. It will take all of Kakabaveh’s conviction and strength to be any different.