9 Dec. – political Twister

strange political twists
pic: amazon.com

As expected, the government and its partners, the Center and Liberal parties, agreed today to postpone and rethink the Employment Service’s reform and privatisation. As written about in this post and this post, Jonas Sjöstedt threatened to bring a vote of no confidence to the floor if the government didn’t stop the reform. The Sweden Democrats (SD), as well as the Moderate and Christian Democratic parties, hopped on the Left party’s train. This was an unexpected development for the government, never having imagined these parties to side with each other on anything.

After a weekend of negotiations with the Center and Liberal parties – the Center party being the main instigator of the Service’s privatisation to begin with – the government has proposed a new timetable for the reform. As Göran Eriksson at SvD puts it, the government backed off on all the points that SD and the Moderate, Christian Democratic and Left parties agreed upon and had a majority in parliament to back it up with, but kept the points that those parties didn’t agree on and didn’t therefore have a parliamentary majority on. In other words, the government satisfied the SD, Moderate and Christian Democratic demands, but not all of the Left party’s demands. How the Center, for whom this matter was close to the heart, is going to frame the postponement remains to be seen.

The gist of the new proposal is that “the law of free system choice” (Lagen om valfrihetssystem, or LOV) will not be the only regulation implemented for employment actors ( – so not just private employment companies will be allowed to help job seekers, but also public organizations like the current employment service and even voluntary organisations can be involved). The government has also gone along with instituting a control system so that there is some kind of check on which companies are being paid from public coffers for doing what. Finally, the reform timetable is being put off a year, to 2022 (DN.se/reform).

So the government is saved, and what remains is how the parties are spinning it. Liberal party leader Nyamko Sabuni, one of the government’s supporting parties, is insisting (despite all evidence to the contrary) that the Left party had no influence over the government’s decision (according to the January agreement that allowed Löfven to hold onto power, the Left party is not “allowed” to have any influence over government policy). The Moderate party is calling the Liberal statement “nonsense“. As previously noted in this blog, Löfven is likely delighted over the postponement.

What he is likely not at all delighted about is this newfound spirit of cooperation between opposition parties with completely different political bents. It is hard to see where they might cooperate next (and they’re certainly not saying) but who knows. The Left party didn’t mind using public support from SD to get their way – gasp – which was also somewhat interesting (they didn’t have lunch or anything though). The Moderate party leader has had lunch with the SD leader Jimmie Åkesson just recently, but now has also just backed the Left party.

What bizarre political constellations can possibly follow?

27 Nov – unavoidable poll results

It happened again – the Sweden Democrats tied for first place in the latest poll. This time it was the Dagens Nyheter/Ipsos poll, whose results came out this afternoon. In the previous poll, the Sweden Democrats (SD) and the Social Democrats were also equal at the number one spot, but the margin of error negated the certainty of results. This time’s results confirm the trend (DN.se/Poll).

For a party that all the other parties wouldn’t speak to – ignoring them like children in a playground – the Sweden Democrats have done ok. More than ok. And the irony is that they’ve done so well – arguably – because everyone else was excluding them from their games and policy making. The Sweden Democrats have gotten votes from everyone who blames immigration for Sweden’s woes, from those tired of the current parties, and from those who protest how things seem to be going in Sweden – all the while being spared from having to face voter fire and ire because they haven’t been responsible for any of it: They’ve been kept away from any formal position of power, but also from responsibility.

The changes in percentage points were small and can easily sway another way come next poll. However it appears clear that Nyamko Sabuni is not raising her Liberal party’s numbers, and that Moderate party leader Ulf Kristersson is going to have a very hard time over the next few months (weeks?) making the decision of how close to the Sweden Democrats he’s willing to get. If he’s willing to formally stand with SD, the right block composed of (theoretically speaking) the Moderates, the Christian Democrats and SD get 48% of voter support, in contrast to the 42% the consortium of Social Democrats, Center, Liberal and Green parties have together. However, these parties have the support of the Left party: However unhappy the Left is with the Social Democrats, it’s highly unlikely they’ll help to vote them out. The Left gets generally at least 8% of voter support, which tips the scale.

The problem with lumping the right block parties together is that SD isn’t really a conservative party, but instead has often actually voted with Social Democrats on policy questions. What unites them with the right block is largely opposition to the current Social Democratic and Green party government, and a promise for a tougher stance against crime. How close they really want to dance, especially at future balls, is hard to say.

As mentioned in this blog the other day, the Sweden Democrats have made a lot of platform changes, making themselves over into a party you could invite in without having to be too scared of what the neighbours might think. They are, and have been for years, much too big to ignore. 25% of the population, at last poll, is ready to come to any party where SD is included.

24 Nov. – SD’s land days of plenty

SD’s Jimmie Åkesson revels in his popularity
pic: SVT.se

The Sweden Democrats are in the middle of their “Land days” (landsdagar) congress in Örebro and the changes in their platform have been several. A change of heart? A maturing social and political awareness? Or a paint job to look a little more up to date?

The official SD political platform will likely include the following changes:

  • ok for homosexual couples to adopt kids: “all children have the right to have a mother- and father figure in their lives” they write
  • will go along with the current, legal 18-week limit for question-free abortions (not their previous platform of a 12 week limit)
  • no upper age limit for free mammograms or cervical cancer screenings (SvD.se/congress).

As Ewa Stenberg at DN writes, SD’s core ideology is still intact, though: people who come to Sweden must adjust to Sweden, or leave; the number of people emigrating to Sweden must decrease – in fact, more should leave than stay; SD will see a minimum of language differences, cultural differences and religious differences; public service radio and television should act to increase social cohesion, and; previously convicted, repeat offenders can just be tossed into jail again without trial – if they’re really, really hopeless cases.

Moreover, the party held that: asylum seekers should only come to Sweden first via the United Nations’ quota system, and that preference should be given to women, children and persecuted minorities such as HBT-persons and Christians; the requirements for citizenship should be raised and more clearly be coupled with high degrees of societal integration; citizenship can be recalled if the person lied on their application or if they joined a terrorist organization; police training can be paid in some cases; legal parameters for crime fighting should be widened and that it should be made illegal to join a criminal organization.

SD’s group leader (soon to be ex-group leader) Mattias Karlsson raved that only SD could save the country. “The situation for Sweden is a total catastrophe. Sweden is, seriously, in a do or die position” (SvD.se/congress).

21 Nov. – another no confidence motion in the works

Sjöstedt has no confidence
pic: Jessica Gow/TT

Jonas Sjöstedt, leader of the Left Party, has threatened to set a no confidence vote into motion against Minister for Employment Eva Nordmark (read about no confidence votes here). Sjöstedt has made five demands, of which the first one is the big one:

  1. the government stops the privatisation of the Swedish Public Employment Service, aka Arbetsförmedlingen,
  2. the government allocates extra funds to stabilize the Employment Service’s ongoing work,
  3. the government creates an economically detailed and timely plan for stopping the closing of Employment Service offices, and ensures a continued presence across the country creates a plan and make the necessary decisions in the law or in regulations to maintain and develop the Employment Service’s special competencies regarding special needs and support for the disabled,
  4. the government states that any reform of the Employment Services will first be fully investigated in all relevant aspects, including cost estimates and transition procedures, before any part of the Employment Service is changed. An important part of this investigation is how municipalities’ responsibilities and economic situation is affected.

Reforming the Employment Service was a condition set by the Center Party to not vote down the Social Democrats in their bid to remain in power after the last election. Together with the Liberal party, the Center party and the two government parties agreed to a 73 point plan (also known as the January Agreement) that was filled with demands, including a total change in how the Employment Service was set up.

Many of the changes were anathema to Social Democratic voters, let alone Left party voters. The point that likely most sticks in the Left party’s craw is where it says ““This agreement means that the Left Party will not have influence over the political direction in Sweden during the coming term of office” (socialdemocraterna.se).

Sjöstedt is now considering calling the government’s bluff. Only together with the Left party does the government, together with the support from the Center and Liberal parties guaranteed by the government fulfilling the 73-point agreement, have the votes to pass legislation. Up until now, and even with the clause that was created to shut them out, the Left party has not withdrawn their support for the government: The alternative was clearly worse for them.

However, it seems that the Left party’s acquiescence is over, and that they’re even willing to accept support for their no-confidence motion from political opponents. The Sweden Democrats are already 100% behind the Left party’s idea, and even the Moderate Party is considering it. “We want to unseat all this government’s ministers, so it’s very likely that we’ll go along with a vote of no confidence” remarked Jimmie Åkesson, leader of the Sweden Democrats. Although reforming the Employment Service has been part of their platform for a long time, the Moderate party has problems with how it’s been implemented. Group leader for the Moderate party in Parliament, Tobias Billström, commented that although the Left and Moderate parties have very different ideas on how the Service should be run, the current plans for reforming it are “poorly thought out and badly instituted” and lack parliamentary support, to boot (SvD.se/Nordmark).

The question is what the government can do to appease the Left party, while not alienating the Center party. Also the Liberal party is left in a crunch situation: they went along with supporting a Social Democratic government largely to keep the Sweden Democrats isolated,and only as long as the January Agreement was upheld by all sides. If the government downshifts on its commitment to the agreement, the Liberals will be left hanging, and this when they are only just barely above the 4% threshold.

Sjöstedt has said that the government has two weeks to respond before he makes a no confidence motion.

11 Nov. – a name, a vote, and a meeting

can this wave be stopped?
pic: watersource.awa.asn.au

In the wake of the shooting and the explosion over the weekend, that the police now suspect are connected, there are several actions in the works: the police have labelled their response an “extraordinary operation” (särskilt händelse), the Moderate party has said they are behind the Sweden Democrats’ decision to call a vote of no confidence in Minister for Justice Morgan Johansson, and the Malmö police are organizing a special conference, with the local criminals.

Only the terrorist attack on the pedestrians on Drottninggatan in April of 2017, and the forest fires in the summer of 2018, have previously been classified as “extraordinary operations” by the police department. The current operation is being called Operation Rimfrost (hoarfrost in English), and allows the police department to make the decision-making process faster and increases their authority to reprioritize and move police forces around. “The number of persons in criminal networks shall be reduced by force” said Stefan Hector, chief of operations for NOA, the national operations division, “by which we mean arrests, charges and sentencing.” The police hope to seize more weapons and explosives as well. “In about 6 months we will have seen a difference” Hector predicted (SvD.se/rimfrost).

In related news, the Sweden Democrats have said they will be bringing a motion of no confidence in Minister for Justice Johansson to the floor at the party leader debate on Wednesday – and the Moderate party has said they will support it. Jimmie Åkesson, leader of the Sweden Democrats, declared that it was “obvious that the Minister for Justice, who in this case has the ultimate responsibility to handle this situation, does not understand its seriousness. He can’t handle it, and therefore parliament should in some way make clear its dissatisfaction with the work that is unfortunately not happening” (SR.se/Åkesson).

Moderate party leader Ulf Kristersson echoed his colleague. “It is right to direct a vote of no confidence in the Minister for Justice. For the last five years, he has been ultimately responsible for the situation we’ve arrived at in Sweden. It’s untenable. Either the minister does his job or he takes the consequences and resigns. We will be voting no confidence” (SR.se/Åkesson).

For a vote of no confidence to go through, at least 35 parliament members need to demand it. If a majority in parliament (175 members) vote yes, the minister in question must resign. So far, in Swedish history, there have only been nine – count ’em, nine – votes of no confidence. None of them has ever resulted in a minister’s resignation.

As far the other more right parties go, the Liberals have said they will not support a vote of no confidence, but that the government must “take vigorous measures against gangs.” The Christian Democrats haven’t yet commented. It is unlikely in the extreme that the more left Green or Center party will support it, altogether making the resignation of Johansson equally unlikely. The Moderate party’s youth wing, MuF, went its mother party one better and demanded a vote of no confidence in not just the Minister of Justice Johansson, but also on Minister for Home Affairs Mikael Damberg (DN.se/MuF). That one won’t be going anywhere, for the moment at least.

Meanwhile, the local police in Malmö have called a meeting for Tuesday. With the local criminals. The criminals that come don’t have to be the most violent ones, or the leaders – as long as they have legitimacy and that the others “listen when they talk” said Glen Sjögren, coordinator the “Stop Shooting” project (read more about the project here).

“We’re giving them a message – that we don’t want them to die and we don’t want them to kill someone. If they, or someone in their group, commit a crime involving lethal violence or explosives we’re going to focus on their whole group. If they want to leave their criminal life behind them, we’re ready to help them with that too” said Sjögren. “The goal is to stop the current crime wave and to prevent an escalation” (DN.se/slutaskjuta).

It seems like it’s all hands on deck, but whether or not talking leads to actions and then to an effect is anyone’s guess.