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Löfven wins!

sitting pretty good right now
image: socialdemokraterna.se

Löfven has most likely managed to pull together the votes to be reinstated as Prime Minister, and will even likely remain so until the next general election in the fall of 2022.

There have been a lot of hiccups, and perhaps some more will come along. However, Löfven has got to be feeling pretty confident right now. Kakabaveh can be handled, the Green party with whom he shares the government has said they’ll vote green for him, and Center party’s latest demands aren’t something that can’t be massaged into palatability.

Kakabaveh has not yet said she has been placated. Kakabaveh gave Löfven a list of demands to get her vote, and they were all heavily left of center. However, most of them can be fobbed off with promises of putting together a committee to look into the matter. For Kakabaveh, a right-leaning government would be even worse, so she is likely to go along with giving Löfven her tacit support and vote with the yellow card.

In a press conference today, Center said that they will vote with a yellow card as well. In return, the Löfven government, she said, has gone along with three of Center’s, frankly, watered-down demands:

making into law the changes in employment regulations (LAS och omställning – in which, among other things, the last-in first-out rule was relaxed)
less restrictive rules on shorefront building (försvagning av strandskyddet), and
that landowners (we’re talking in particular about forest owners) will have more control over how they manage their own property (förstärkt äganderätt för skogsägare)

The twist here is that the Green party, a party that together with the Social Democrats officially forms the government, has absolutely not gone along with these three conditions that the Center party claims “the government” has gone along with. In an interview after Center party’s press conference, Green party co-leader Marta Stenevi said that the Green party was not at all behind these concessions. In fact, they are supposedly red lines for the Green party. Yet, Stenevi said that the Green party will vote red to a Kristersson (Moderate party) government and will vote green on Stefan Löfven for Prime Minister. They say yes, she continues, to a Green, Center, Left and Social Democrat constellation, but a big no to what the Center party says they have an agreement on with the government.

What does this mean!?! Almost nothing. The Green party has historically twisted itself into so many configurations to match the space allowed for them in a government coalition, that it is unlikely in the extreme they will stop a Löfven-led government from returning to power. The bottom line is that although she says no to these supposedly agreed-upon demands from Center, she won’t vote against reinstating Löfven.

Löfven has therefore 175 votes – if not positively for him (green), then at least not against him (green and yellow together, versus red) and that is all that matters.

But wait, there’s more

However, there is potentially a little, little spanner in the works, and that is the budget that needs to be passed in December. But it likely won’t be important. Here goes:

Center’s position, from the beginning, has been that the Left party may not in any way be a contributing partner in budget negotiations. However, what fikas the Social Democrats have with Left party members at the lower levels where the budget is actually hammered out, is not something that Center is going to police. If the Social Democrats and the Green party present a budget (for which they earlier have gotten the Left party’s acceptance) then Center can most likely go along with it.

And even if one of the Löfven-cooperating parties doesn’t go along with the budget, who cares? Löfven has promised to call for new elections if his budget doesn’t pass. The budget comes up for a vote in December. If the government falls over the budget, an election would have to be held latest March. The next general election is in the fall, about six months later. No one – really, no one – wants to have two elections in a six month period. Ergo, no party that doesn’t vote against Löfven now is going to vote to bring down Löfven then. Löfven wins! He gets his government and he gets his budget.

Who knew that the two extreme parties, the Left and the Sweden Democrats, could work so well together for the Social Democrats? Did Center? Not a chance. But did the Social Democrats? Who knows? It’s brilliant, though.

To stay or to go – the Green party is wavering

Isabella Lövin and Per Bolund Miljöpartiet — An unhappy couple left out in the cold
pic: miljöpartiet.se

The Green party is in crisis discussions regarding staying or leaving the government, Expressen reported today. By the end of August, the government wants to have a new migration policy, one that has broad support from all the parties, done and dusted. To this end, the Social Democrats have had long and intensive discussions with the Moderate party in particular, something the Green party doesn’t appreciate at all as they and the Moderates have largely diametrical thoughts on the immigration topic. Last Friday, the discussions were particularly comprehensive – but the Green party was left out on the doorstep.

At the moment, the Social Democrats, the Moderates and the Christian Democrats are agreed, DN reports, on some sort of asylum “max number”. Even the Center party and Liberals haven’t expressed outright opposition to the concept. These three or more parties, if they come to an agreement, would get a majority in parliament. The Sweden Democrats would likely go along though, which would make a pretty much unassailable majority, even if they say they consider the proposal “way too lame” (alldeles för mesigt).

On the other hand, however, the Green party and the Left party are indignant going on outraged. “The Social Democrats are slamming the door in both our faces by negotiating with the Moderates. There is another majority here, one that the government is actually based on. Still, they turn to the Moderates. It’s refugees who will pay the price” said Left party board member Christina Höj Larsen. “It is completely unique that the government negotiates with the opposition and not its own partner” said a Green party member to Expressen. “Are all the questions we’re not agreed on to be decided with the Moderates in the future?”

When the Social Democrats first put more restrictive policies in place after the wave of immigration threatened municipality stability back in 2015, the Green party still didn’t leave the government – to the dismay and anger from a large part of their following. They will be risking that anger again if their “partner” the Social Democrats run them over again on the same question.

One thing that might make a more restrictive immigration policy more palatable, however, is if the government says no to Preem’s expansion plan (see “Preem gets a pass” here). If not, though, losing on two issues close to their heart, if that’s what happens – and when they’re supposed to be a deciding partner – might prove to be too much to swallow.

7 sep. – 70 million kronor to the bees

Little budget crumbs continue to be scattered to the press and public for consumption. Yesterday, it was the Green Party’s time in the sun, who announced how much is proposed to be spent on various climate measures ().

The biggest recipient for climate money is what they call the Great Step for the Environment (klimatkliv). It sounds better, and more western, in Swedish, but is basically a pot of money set aside for local and regional environment initiatives.

The website for the fund, which reads like an infomercial, puts it like this: “Do you have an idea to reduce society’s climate footprint? Then apply for funding from Great Step for the Environment. Through smart, innovative solutions we can reduce greenhouse gases and move towards a more climate-smart society.” Great Step for the Environment is receiving an additional 1.16 billion kronor, for a total of nearly 2 billion kronor in the 2020 budget.

The next Great Step is given to industry to help them change over to a more environmentally friendly way of working. Great Step for Industry (industrikliv) will have about 600 million that can be applied for by businesses that are working to reduce greenhouse gas emissions either in their industrial processes, or through working to collect and store greenhouse gases. Great Step for Industry is not such a great step, perhaps, getting less than half of what GSforE gets.

The following budget items get only less money, and are somewhat less clear in their method:

400 million kronor for steps to look after valuable nature (åtgärder för värdefull natur), which includes national parks, reserves and marshlands
240 million kronor for measures on behalf of the ocean and water environment (åtgärder för havs och vattenmiljö)
200 million kronor for safeguarding valuable nature, (skydd av värdefull natur) like forests
80 million more kronor to document the health of, and changes in, the environment (miljöövervakning)
70 million kronor for measures to help and support pollinators (pollinatörer) – bees, and other important insects) Measures might include, for example, planting more meadows, or flowers planted by roadsides or in the middle of roundabouts, etc.
65 million for clean oceans (literally a drop in the bucket)
50 million for “green cities”

The Swedish Society for Nature Conservation (Naturskyddsverket) is happy not happy. “It’s welcome, but not enough” was the rather predictable response. “The pollinator support is terrific, but where is the tax on pesticides?” was one complaint ().

In total, the budget for environment measures is 2.9 billion kronor, a level that could be a reflection of the level of popularity for the two Green Party leaders (not so popular, see this post). In which case, it’s both awful and ironic that the environment suffers from its association with the Green Party.